Physics of Hydrological Predictability

Working group

Abstract of the proposed research activity.

The main objective of the Working Group (WG) is to advance our understanding interconnection of predictability aspects of hydrological, weather and climate components of the Earth System.

WG science questions include:

  1. What are the predictability limits of different water cycle processes and what metrics can be used to quantify it?
    These metrics will be used
    • for classifying hydrological systems in view of their predictability
    • for evaluating the quality of the water cycle models by dividing inherent and model-related predictability limits, and
    • for separating predictable and unpredictable water cycle patterns.
  2. How to identify patterns of long-term predictability of the water cycle and to what extent are they affected by climate change processes?
  3. How can we advance climate impact studies that focus on the hydrological system resilience to climate changes and quantify uncertainties related to climate and hydrological components?
  4. How to quantify and improve robustness of hydrological models used in climate impact studies?

Panta Rhei research Targets and Science Questions addressed by the Research Theme.

WG’s research activities are closely related to Science Question (SQ) 1 and SQ2. However potentially, results of the research activities are expected to be demand in addressing (fully or partly) all SQs.

Societal impact of the Working Group activity.

The Working Group research activities are framed within the context of effective regional water management. A deeper understanding of hydrological changes, which is necessary for design of efficient management and adaptation strategies under conditions of water scarcity, with an objective to prevent and mitigate floods and droughts in the ongoing climate changes without compromising the sustainability of ecosystems. Identification of predictable patterns in the water cycle would contribute to these strategies. Better understanding of predictability will provide an opportunity to improve the accuracy of hydrologic predictions and projections based on predictable weather and projected climate patterns. Thereafter, having these projections at hand, the requirements of the water resources management and adaptation to future climatic changes will be easier to meet.

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