Publications

Papers published within the framework of the IAHS Panta Rhei Research Initiative

Testing robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions

A. Gelfan, Yu. Motovilov, I. Krylenko, V. Moreido & E. Zakharova

The paper deals with evaluation of robustness of the physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model with respect to changing (by either climatic or land-use cases) conditions. Case study has been carried out for two basins considered within the modelling experiment held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second one, Obyån Creek, was exposed to a drastic land cover change due to deforestation. The tests have been conducted to evaluate the model ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy changing hydrological regime of the both basins and to retain, herewith, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model has been obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins.

DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.935780 Special issue: Modelling temporally-variable catchments, 2014


Disastrous Flood of 2013 in the Amur Basin: Genesis, Recurrence Assessment, Simulation Results

V. I. Danilov Danilyan, A. N. Gelfan, Yu. G. Motovilov, and A. S. Kalugin

The major formation factors of a disastrous flood in the Amur basin in July - September 2013 are discussed. The role of the Zeya and Bureya reservoirs in reducing the flood hazard is discussed. Preliminary estimates of the recurrence of peak flood discharge are given. It is shown that, considering the deficiency of data on water discharges along the river and the short duration of the available observation series, the estimates of flood hazard on the Amur R. obtained by statistical treatment of those data shows considerable uncertainty. A physical-mathematical model was developed to describe runoff formation in the Middle Amur basin based on the ECOMAG information-simulation complex and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model describing the motion of flood wave over a 600-km segment of the Amur R. was developed based on MIKE 11. The potentialities of the joint use of the proposed models to reproduce the behaviour of water discharges and levels in different parts of the Amur R. during the propagation of the flood in 2013 and to evaluate the effect of withdrawals from the Zeya Reservoir to the water level regime of the Amur downstream of the Zeya R. mouth.

ISSN 0097-8078, Water Resources, 2014, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 115–125. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2014. Original Russian Text © V.I. Danilov-Danilyan, A.N. Gelfan, Yu.G. Motovilov, A.S. Kalugin, 2014, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2014, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 111–122.


Impact of snowfall measurement deficiencies on quantification of precipitation and its trends over Northern Eurasia

P.Ya. Groisman, E.G. Bogdanova, V.A. Alexeev, J.E. Cherry, O.N. Bulygina

Instead of «ground truth» precipitation, rain gauges at meteorological stations estimate a function of several variables. In addition to precipitation, these variables include temperature, wind, humidity, gauge type, state of the gauge exposure, and observational practices. Their impact and changes hamper our efforts to estimate precipitation changes alone. For example, wind-induced negative biases for snowfall measurements are higher than for other precipitation types and a redistribution of these types during regional warming can cause an artificial increase in measured precipitation. In such conditions, the only way to properly estimate actual climatic changes of precipitation would be a use of precipitation time series that are corrected for all known systematic biases. Methodology of such corrections has been developed and recently implemented for Northern Eurasia for the past 50+ years (up to 2010). With the focus on Russia, we assess differences that emerge when officially reported precipitation in the cold season is compared to corrected precipitation time series at the same network. It is shown that conclusions about trend patterns over the country are quite different when all sources of inhomogeneity of precipitation time series are removed and impact of all factors unrelated to the precipitation process are accounted for. In particular, we do not see statistically significant increases of the cold season precipitation over most of the Russian Federation and in Arctic Asia it significantly decreases.

Russian Ice And Snow, 2014 vol. 2 (126). P.Ya. Groisman, E.G. Bogdanova, V.A. Alexeev, J.E. Cherry, O.N. Bulygina. Impact of snowfall measurement deficiencies on quantification of precipitation and its trends over Northern Eurasia


A Technique for Scenario Prediction of Changes in Water Balance Components in Northern River Basins in the Context of Possible Climate Change

E. M. Gusev and O. N. Nasonova

A method is developed for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate changes. The method uses the land surface model SWAP, describing the heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Four IPCC climate scenarios, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the human civilization, were used to forecast different variants of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the Northern Dvina River basin in the XXI century, which served as a basis for evaluating possible changes in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from the Northern Dvina basin until the year of 2063.

ISSN 0097_8078, Water Resources, 2013, Vol. 40, No. 4, pp. 426–440. Original Russian Text © E.M. Gusev, O.N. Nasonova, 2013, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2013, Vol. 40, No. 4, pp. 396–411.


Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

Gusev Yeugeniy M., Olga N. Nasonova

The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed. Three IPCC global emission scenarios corresponding to different possible scenarios for economic, technological, political and demographic development of the human civilization in the 21st century were chosen for generating climate change projections by an ensemble of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a high spatial resolution. The projections representing increments of monthly values of meteorological characteristics were used for creating 3-hour meteorological time series up to 2063 for the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to the pan-Arctic basin and locates at the north of the European part of Russia. The obtained time series were applied as forcing data to drive the land surface model SWAP to simulate possible changes in the water balance components due to different scenarios of climate change for the Northern Dvina River basin.

J. Hydrol. Hydromech., Vol. 62, No. In Progress, 2014, p. 1 - 12 , doi: 10.2478/johh-2014-0025.


Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus

Irina. S. Partasenok, Pavel Ya. Groisman, Grigoriy S. Chekan and Viktor. I. Melnik

We studied long-term fluctuations of streamflow and occurrence of extreme phenomena on the rivers of Belarus during the post-World War II period. It was found that formation of annual runoff within the nation has no constant tendencies and varies from year to year. At the same time, analysis of intra-annual distribution of streamflow reveals significant changes since the 1970s, first of all, increase of winter and decrease of spring streamflow. As a result, the frequency of extreme floods has decreased. These changes in water regime are associated with climatic anomalies (increase of the surface air temperatures) caused by large-scale alterations in atmospheric circulation, specifically in trajectories of cyclones. During the last two decades, the frequency of Atlantic and southern cyclones has changed and caused decreasing of cold season storms and extreme phenomena on the rivers.

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